I live in São Miguel Island, Azores.
Despite being the largest in the archipelago, it is a small island, measuring just 748,82 km².
137,699 inhabitants live here, according to the 2011 census.
The sea is a constant presence. It is almost always possible to see it, as the island is only 8-15 km wide. All the islands of the archipelago are frequently hit by storms, especially during winter.
When the sea is calm, like in this photograph, we forget the dangers of storms. These, with climate change, will tend to become more frequent and stronger.
But we forget another reality, perhaps more dangerous: the sea level rise, due to global warming.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change, global mean sea level “will rise between 0.43 m (0.29–0.59 m, likely range; RCP2.6) and 0.84 m (0.61–1.10 m, likely range; RCP8.5) by 2100 (medium confidence) relative to 1986–2005”.
Source: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities (pdf).
Islands and coastal communities will be particularly affected by this phenomenon: “(i) the permanent submergence of land by higher mean sea levels or mean high tides; (ii) more frequent or ghintense coastal flooding; (iii) enhanced coastal erosion; (iv) loss and change of coastal ecosystems; (v) salinisation of soils, ground and surface water; and (vi) impeded drainage.”
What future for these communities? With the advance of the sea, will the small islands be able to offer conditions for survival? Or will its inhabitants be doomed to become climate refugees?
